As a basis for determining the changes, the temperature development over the past 50 years was examined in more detail and the climate model MM5 was used to estimate future warming. The temperature development over the past 50 years even shows a cooling for the first two decades, but has risen sharply since 1970. The climate model predicts a warming of approx. 2.2°C for the study area in the Niedere Tauern over the next 50 years.

Tree growth is highly dependent on temperature, and a high correlation between the growth limit of trees and the 10°C July isotherm has been demonstrated. The climate model MM5 shows a predicted increase in isotherms by around 450 meters over the next 50 years. However, predicted temperature changes depend very much on the climate model used. No statement can be made about the speed at which the tree line moves towards the temperature-related growth limit; this would be the subject of future research.

Furthermore, human management has a very large influence on the course of the forest line. It is therefore not yet possible to predict how this will change. The current habitats were created using a knowledge-based habitat model using a geographic information system (GIS). Assuming that the future tree line reaches the height of the calculated isotherm for the decade 2040-2050, this shift will result in a dramatic loss of habitat.