To determine the changes, the temperature trend of the past 50 years was examined in detail, and the MM5 climate model was used to estimate future warming. The temperature trend over the past 50 years even shows a cooling for the first two decades, but a sharp increase since 1970. The climate model predicts a warming of approximately 2.2°C for the study area in the Lower Tauern mountains over the next 50 years.

Tree growth is highly dependent on temperature, and a strong correlation has been demonstrated between the tree line and the 10°C July isotherm. The MM5 climate model predicts an elevation rise of approximately 450 meters in the isotherms over the next 50 years. However, predicted temperature changes depend heavily on the specific climate model used. No statement can be made about the rate at which the tree line is moving towards the temperature-related growth limit; this would be a subject for future research.

Furthermore, human management has a very significant impact on the course of the treeline. Therefore, it is not yet possible to predict how this will change. The current habitats were created using a knowledge-based habitat model with the aid of a Geographic Information System (GIS). Assuming that the future treeline reaches the height of the calculated isotherm for the decade 2040-2050, this shift will lead to a dramatic loss of habitat.